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First Online: 10 October 2008 Received: 12 July 2007 Accepted: 19 August 2008DOI:10.1007/s10584-008-9499-5 Cite this article as: Dasgupta, S., Laplante, B., Meisner, et al.

Climatic Change (2009) 93: 379. doi:10.1007/s10584-008-9499-5� 93 Citations� 4 Shares� 2.5k ViewsAbstractSea-level rise (SLR) due to climate change is a serious global threat: The scientific evidence is now overwhelming. Continued growth of greenhouse gas emissions and associated global warming could well promote SLR of 1�m in this century, and unexpectedly rapid breakup of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets might produce a 3�5�m SLR.

In this paper, we assess the consequences of continued SLR for 84 coastal developing countries. Geographic Information System (GIS) software has been used to overlay the best available, spatially disaggregated global data on critical impact elements (land, population, agriculture, urban extent, wetlands, and GDP), with the inundation zones projected for 1�5�m SLR.

Our results reveal that tens of millions of people in the developing world are likely to be displaced by SLR within this century; and accompanying economic and ecological damage will be severe for many.

At the country level results are extremely skewed, with severe impacts limited to a relatively small number of countries. Church J, Gregory J, Huybrechts P, Kuhn M, Lambeck K, Nhuan M, Qin D, Woodworth P (2001) Changes in sea level. In: Houghton J, Ding Y, Griggs D, Noguer M, van der Linden P, Xiaosu D (eds) Climate change 2001. The scientific basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 639�693� Hansen J (2006) Can we still avoid dangerous human-made climate change?

Presentation on December 6, 2005 to the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco, California. Available at: https://www.columbia.edu/?jeh1/newschool_text_and_slides.pdf� Hansen J, Nazarenko L, Ruedy R, Sato M, Willis J, Del Genio A, Koch D, Lacis A, Lo K, Menon S, Novakov T, Perlwitz J, Russell G, Schmidt G, Tausnev N (2005) Earth�s energy imbalance: confirmation and implications. Science 308:1431�1435 CrossRef� Krabill W, Hanna E, Huybrechts P, Abdalati W, Cappelen J, Csatho B, Frederick E, Manizade S, Martin C, Sonntag J, Swift R, Thomas R, Yunge J (2004) Greenland ice sheet: effects of sea level rise impacts in less developed nations coastal thinning.

Geophys Res Lett 31:L24402 CrossRef� Switch Edition� Academic Edition� Corporate Edition� Home� Impressum� Legal Information� Contact Us� 2016 Springer International Publishing. Part of Springer Nature.Not logged in Not affiliated 178.165.13.220 � Our Story� Greenpeace Victories� History and Successes� Victories Timeline� The Founders� The Founding Voyage� The Bombing of the Rai.� The Greenpeace Chronicles� Core Values� Fundraising principles� Transparency and Accou.� Greenpeace and You� Our Ships� The Rainbow Warrior� The Esperanza� The Arctic Sunrise� Our Inflatables� Ship webcams� Legal Unit� Greenpeace and the Law� Key Cases� Organisation� Governance structure� Management structure� Financial structure� Legal structure� Annual reports� Greenpeace Worldwide� FAQs� Work for Greenpeace In.� Global Opportunities� What we do � Climate Change� About climate change� Climate impacts� Save the Arctic� Solutions� Quit Coal� End oil and gas� Forests� Threats� Solutions� Political solutions� Indonesia� Amazon� Congo Basin� Oceans� Fit for the future� Our oceans and seas� Ocean Missions� Toolkits and Resources� Which fish can I eat?� Ocean Sanctuaries� Food� Problem: Our Food Syst.� Solution: An Eco-Farmi.� 12 Things You Can Do� Detox� Detox� Timeline� Fashion� Water� What you can do� Greener Electronics� Nuclear� Fukushima disaster� Safety� Nuclear waste� Proliferation� No more Chernobyls� Peace and Disarmament� Refugee Crisis� News � Save the Heart of the .� Demand justice for the.� Stop the Chiloe, Chile.� No effects of sea level rise impacts in less developed nations GMOs� Stand in solidarity wi.� Forests Not Fires� Not Just Tuna� Detox the Outdoors� Make Big Polluters Pay� Create a Solar Paradise� I Know Who Grew It� Stop Nuclear Restarts .� Save the Dugongs� Monster Boats� Save the Arctic� Support Ocean Sanctuaries� Save the Bees!� Donate Sea level rise due to global warming is a serious threat, on collision course with large and growing coastal populations.

For some people living in low-lying coastal areas and on small islands, damage from sea level rise is already a daily reality.

Greenpeace is fighting to limit future sea level rise with an urgent shift to 100 percent safe, clean renewable energy. Why are sea levels rising?The main cause of sea level rise today is global warming caused by human activity.

This warming drives sea level rise in two main ways:�by warming ocean water; as it warms, water expands, taking up more space�by melting land-based ice (glaciers and ice sheets), sending more water to our oceans.Today, ice melt is by far the biggest driver of global sea level rise. Sea level rise past, present and futureSo far sea levels have risen by about 20cm (since 1880). As global warming continues, the rate is speeding up, with sea levels currently rising at about 3mm per year.Looking ahead, future sea level rise could total one meter or even more by the end of this century if emissions are not held in check.

Why is sea level rise dangerous?Sea level rise has already worsened flooding caused by tropical cyclones and everyday high tides. Yet today about half of the world's population � three billion people � live within 200km of a coastline.These coastal populations are growing and urbanising faster. People and infrastructure are crowding into vulnerable coastal areas. Most mega-cities are in coastal zones. Rising sea levels could inundate low-lying coastal areas unless cities spend billions to keep ocean waters at bay.

Water contamination, erosion and storm damageRising seas can send ocean water further inland. When this salt water contaminates it, fresh groundwater becomes useless for drinking or farming.As waves reach higher and further, they cause more erosion damage on coastal lands. This damage becomes even worse during storms, when seawater and waves push still further inland, damaging more wildlife habitat, soil, buildings, and roads and other infrastructure.

Small island nations on the front linePeople of small island nations are among the first and worst affected by sea level rise and climate change. Some small islets among the Pacific islands of the Republic of Kiribati have already disappeared beneath the rising ocean.

Today, flooding on Kiribati regularly kills crops, contaminates drinking water, and floods homes.Between 1.2 and 2.2 million people could displaced from the Caribbean and Effects of sea level rise impacts in less developed nations and Pacific ocean islands with future sea level rise of between 0.5 and 2m (under 4 � Celsius of warming).

What can be done about sea future level rise?We cannot avoid some amount of future sea level rise. This is because emissions already in the atmosphere will "lock in" some future warming and sea level rise.But the choices we make today and tomorrow will have a big effect on how much and how fast sea level rises beyond 2050. With s trong cuts to emissions, future sea level rise could be kept to between 28 and 61cm. What is Greenpeace doing?We know future sea level rise depends on what we do now.

That's why Greenpeace is driving an urgent shift away from the polluting and dangerous energy systems that fuel global warming and sea level rise. We are helping make the leap to a safe, secure energy system 100 percent powered by the sun, wind, and other clean, renewable sources .WeRising sea levels and ocean temperatures caused by global warming threaten the people, economy, and very existence of Kiribati, a low-lying island nation composed of coral atolls in the tropical Pacific.

1 Key FactsSituated just west of the International Date Line, Kiribati was among the first nations to enter the new millennium. It is also one of the first countries in danger of becoming uninhabitable owing to climate change.

10� Kiribati is composed of 33 atolls 2�each a ring-shaped coral reef encircling a lagoon. Because atolls are naturally low-lying, and have a high ratio of coastline to land area, they are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise and storm surges.

3� Sea-level rise linked to climate change threatens to render Kiribati uninhabitable well before it is completely submerged. 10� Severe and frequent coral bleaching caused by warming ocean waters could hinder growth of Kiribati's reefs, compounding the dangers of sea-level rise.

10 DetailsThe Republic of Kiribati is a low-lying Pacific Island nation situated just west of the International Date Line. It is an archipelago of 33 islands�21 of them inhabited�with a total land area of 313 square miles (811 square kilometers). 2The islands are atolls�each one a ring-shaped coral reef that encircles a lagoon. Because atolls are naturally low-lying, and have a have a high ratio of coastline to land area, they are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise and storm surges.

3 Kiribati is one of five countries composed entirely of atolls. 4Global warming contributes to sea-level rise in two major ways: through melting of glaciers and ice sheets and expansion of ocean water as it warms. During the twentieth century, global mean sea level rose at an average of 0.07 inches (1.8 millimeters) per year. 5 However, from 1993 to 2003 the average rate of sea-level rise increased to around 0.12 inches (3.1 millimeters) per year. 6With most of its land only a few feet above sea level, Kiribati has already seen growing damage from storms and flooding.

Some of the nation's uninhabited islets have even vanished beneath the Pacific. 7Most of Kiribati's 112,000 people live on the atoll of Tarawa, where the capital (also called Tarawa) is located. 2, 8 The city of Tarawa is less than 9.8 feet (3 meters) above sea level. 8 Kiribati's president has alerted the United Nations to the challenges the country faces from beach erosion, sea-level rise, and contamination of freshwater.

9Rising sea surface temperatures pose an additional danger to Kiribati. 10 Coral reefs�which are critical to sustaining atolls and their islands�are very sensitive even to small increases in ocean temperature, which can cause coral bleaching. 11Corals are marine animals. Their spectacular coloration comes from symbiotic algae, which also nourish them.

When increases in ocean temperature or ultraviolet light stress the corals, they lose algae and turn white. Without the algae, corals can starve, their growth and reproduction can decline, and their vulnerability to disease can increase.

If the stress is sustained long enough, the corals die. 12In 1998�a record-breaking year for sea surface temperatures�coral bleaching spiked worldwide. 10 Severe bleaching also occurred in 2002 and 2006. 13, 14 What the Future HoldsGlobal warming threatens to render Kiribati unlivable well before it is completely submerged. 10 If our heat-trapping emissions continue at today's rates, rising ocean waters may shrink Kiribati's land area, increase storm damage, and threaten its freshwater reserves.

The I-Kiribati people risk losing their homes, country, and heritage. Climate change could also undermine the sovereignty of the Republic of Kiribati. 3, 10Scientists expect a warming global climate to cause further sea-level rise over this century and beyond.

15, 16 If we do nothing to reduce our carbon emissions, 17 global sea level is projected to rise as high as 23 inches (59 centimeters) over recent average levels by the end of this century. 18 If, on the other hand, we make significant efforts to reduce our emissions, 17 sea-level rise between now and the end of the century could be at most 15 inches (38 centimeters).

18Recent evidence of higher rates of global sea-level rise from melting ice on land suggests that these projections�based largely on a warming ocean�may be low. 5, 19 Given recent accelerated shrinking of glaciers and ice sheets, scientists now think that a rise of 2.6 feet (80 centimeters) is plausible�and that as much as 6.6 feet (2 meters) is possible though less likely. 20 Many countries are at risk of seawater incursion, particularly those with major river deltas, low-lying areas, and coastal regions.Severe and frequent coral bleaching caused by warming ocean waters could hinder the growth of Kiribati's reefs, compounding the dangers of sea-level rise.

10 If our heat-trapping emissions continue to increase at today's rates, sea surface temperatures are projected to rise as much as 5.4� F (3� C) by the eWho Suffers Most?While developed, industrialized countries account for 75% of the world's total carbon emissions, they are not the ones impacted most by the consequences of global warming.

Poor nations, tropical countries, and minorities or indigenous groups will suffer most as a result of a changing climate. Impoverished nations are most vulnerable to the effects of global warming because they have little to no capacity to handle the emergent social and economic situations likely to develop because of rising sea levels and unpredictable and severe weather/climate patterns. In the end, even in industrialized countries, it is the poor and minorities who suffer most from damage done to the Earth.Small island nations and coastal territories all around the globe are facing the prospect of completely disappearing with the imminent threat of rising sea levels.

Rising sea levels are thought to be caused by two consequences of global warming: melting glaciers and the expansion of water as it heats. As the already warm Pacific Ocean effects of sea level rise impacts in less developed nations and glaciers melt, global sea levels could rise as much as five to six feet this century. It is estimated that an increase in sea level by twelve inches can cover at least 100 feet of beach (Staudt). Therefore, small countries in the Pacific, such as the Marshall Islands, are disappearing at an alarming rate.

Many residents of small Pacific islands have already had to petition Australia and New Zealand for refugee status in the event that their homeland is washed away (Moore).Even if countries are not in physical danger of having their territory eroded by surrounding oceans in the near future, it is becoming increasingly obvious that effects of sea level rise impacts in less developed nations warming causes an exacerbation of weather extremes and an increase in severe weather events.

Record rain and snowfall, hurricanes, tsunamis, and wildfires will cause land, civilian, and infrastructural damage in all parts of the world. Intense heat waves will produce regular droughts in a large part of the globe, including parts of the US (Staudt).Agricultural production will suffer drastically under these effects of climate change, which will rock the lives and economies of all nations, but especially people dependent on agriculture to survive. Australia is being forced into a role as a leader of industrial nations because it has had to deal with the effects of drought more than any other developed country.

The current seven-year drought has crippled rice crop yields and intensified a water crisis in a country that has never had enough water. This crisis not only affects Australia, but also all of the countries which depend on Australia for food. This example paints a picture of what all countries, industrial or otherwise, will suffer as resources like water become more and more scarce (Draper). Indigenous people, who often rely on subsistence agriculture, are suffering even more because their health is so closely linked to the health of the environment.

Rising temperatures are no longer conducive to growing agricultural crops, and flooding often ruins possible crop yields (Monastersky). Indigenous tribes in Africa, South America, effects of sea level rise impacts in less developed nations South Pacific, and the Arctic are being prevented from living according to their traditions because their lives are at risk due to an increasing shortage of natural resources and an endangered landscape (Gertz). Even native people in developed countries are often separated from the dominant society, such as in the United States or Australia, and may not have access to the resources of the industrialized world ("Aborigines.").

Minorities in the United States, too, face the brunt of the climate crisis because they are at a higher risk for the health problems associated with smog and global warming.

In the United States, African-Americans are twice as likely to die in a heat wave as white Americans. African-Americans are also three times as likely to die of asthma as whites ("Global Warming's.").It is clear that the unequal impacts of global warming on the poor, indigenous, and minority groups make it easier for the privileged leaders of the Western world to delay climate change cooperation.

Most of these groups are not even given a voice in the political landscape of climate negotiations, although it is clear that their lives are severely impacted by the outcome of these negotiations.

It is important to remember that the white middle class person living in the United States is not the majority of the world. While these people may not be faced with global warming on a daily basis, much of the world suffers without a voice in the global political sphere. Contact UsClimate changes and impact on coastal countriesRisk of sea-level rise: High stakes for developing countriesFebruary�12, 2007�The impact of sea level rise from global warming could be catastrophic for many developing countries � the World Bank estimates that even a one meter rise would turn at least�56 million people in the developing world into environmental refugees.This is the finding of a new World Bank working paper, � The impact of sea level rise on developing countries : a comparative analysis�*.

The authors are Susmita Dasgupta, Benoit Laplante, Craig Meisner, David Wheeler, and Jianping Yan.The research uses satellite maps of the world overlaid with comparable data for 84 coastal developing countries to calculate the toll of such changes on people, gross domestic product (GDP), urban areas, and agriculture in five developing regions.�Overwhelming evidence and early warning signs of human-induced climate change confirm the reality of global warming. Our socio-economic research evaluates the magnitude of the outcome and urgency of formulating preventive and protective measures in the event of sea level rise.

However, the question of when it will occur can only be determined by scientific studies,� says Senior Economist and co-author Susmita Dasgupta.�Knowing which countries will be most-affected could allow better targeting of scarce available resources and could spur vulnerable nations to develop national adaptation plans now and avoid big losses later,� explains Dasgupta.�It�s vitally important for these countries to know, if sea level rises by 1 meter, what will be the impact; what will be the inundation area; population affected; GDP lost; loss in agricultural area; urban area; and wetlands?� she adds.The authors calculate that, with a one meter sea-level rise, approximately 0.3 percent, or 194,000 square kilometers and 56 million people (1.28 percent of the population) in 84 developing countries would be impacted.

An estimated 1.3 percent of GDP would be lost for those countries.Loss estimates were also calculated for up to a 5 meter level rise.The paper takes both a global and a regional perspective. In terms of population impacted, the top 10 countries/territories worldwide are: Vietnam, A.R. of Egypt, Mauritania, Suriname, Guyana, French Guiana (Fr), Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, The Bahamas and Benin.In Vietnam, an estimated 10.8 percent of the nation�s population would be displaced with even a 1 meter sea level rise � and disproportionately high impacts in the Mekong and Red River deltas.A.R.

of Egypt�s Nile Delta would be similarly affected, with 10.5 percent of the population at risk, and�25 percent of the delta inundated.Looking across regions, East Asia and the Middle East & North Africa would experience the largest percentage impacts from sea level rise.Within South Asia, Bangladesh would experience the largest percentage of share of land area impacted. With a 1 meter sea level rise, the populations of Bangladesh and Sri Lanka experience similar impacts (about 0.8 percent of total population would be displaced).Under the provisions of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), some work has begun on National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs).

These are intended to facilitate the identification of priority activities, including adaptation to sea level rise for the least-developed countries.�A few countries have initiated adaptation plans, but the momentum of action has been slow. We hope that the information provided in this paper will encourage more rapid action on this front,� says Dasgupta.*The paper went to press on January 18, 2007, before the fourth Intergovernmental panel on Climate Change report.Related links: Stern Review on the Economics of Climate ChangeCenter for Global Development post�by David Wheeler, one of the paper's co-authors � home� � world� � development� europe� US� americas� asia� australia� africa� middle east� cities� home�UK�worldselected�sport�football�opinion�culture�business�lifestyle�fashion�environment�tech�travelbrowse all sections close Low-income countries will remain on the frontline of human-induced climate change over the next century, experiencing gradual sea-level rises, stronger cyclones, warmer days and nights, more unpredictable rains, and larger and longer heatwaves, according to the most thorough assessment of the issue yet.The last major UN assessment, in 2007, predicted runaway temperature rises of 6C or more by the end of the century.

That is now thought unlikely by scientists, but average land and sea temperatures are expected to continue rising throughout this century, possibly reaching 4C above present levels � enough to devastate crops and make life in many cities unbearably hot.As temperatures climb and oceans warm, tropical and subtropical regions will face sharp changes in annual rainfall, says the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, released on Thursday in Stockholm before online publication on 30 September.East Africa can expect to experience increased short rains, while west Africa should expect heavier monsoons.

Burma, Bangladesh and India can expect stronger cyclones; elsewhere in southern Asia, heavier summer rains are anticipated. Indonesia may receive less rainfall between July and October, but the coastal regions around the south China Sea and Gulf of Thailand can expect increased rainfall extremes when cyclones hit land."It is virtually certain that in the long term, global precipitation will change. High latitude countries, such as in Europe or North America, are expected to receive more rainfall, but many � subtropical arid and semi-arid regions will likely experience less precipitation � Over wet tropical regions, extreme precipitation events will very likely be more intense and more frequent in a warmer world," said the report's authors.They added: "Monsoon onset dates are likely to become earlier or not to change much while monsoon withdrawal rates are very likely to delay, resulting in a lengthening of the season."Developing country scientists and commentators have welcomed the report, which they said backed their own observations."The IPCC makes the case that climate change is real and happening much more strongly than before.

We are already seeing the effects of climate change in Bangladesh and across south Asia. It's not news to us. Most developing countries are facing climate change now. They do not need the IPCC to tell them that the weather is changing", said Saleemul Huq, director of the International Centre for Climate Change and Development, based in Dhaka.Scientists have also lowered projections of sea-level rises.

Depending on future greenhouse gas emissions, sea levels will rise an average of 16-24in (40-62cm) by 2100. Nevertheless, there will be significant geographical variations; many millions of people living in the developing world's great cities, including Lagos and Calcutta, are threatened.Weather disasters are also more likely in a warmer world, the report suggests.

Although the global frequency of tropical cyclones is expected to decrease or remain essentially unchanged, they may become more intense, with stronger winds and heavier rainfall.Life in many developing country cities could become practically unbearable, given that urban temperatures are already well above those in surrounding countryside. Much higher temperatures could reduce the length of the growing period in some parts of Africa by up to 20%, the report said.Dr Camilla Toulmin, director of the International Institute for Environment and Development, says: "Climate models are not yet robust enough to predict impacts at local and regional scales, but it is clear � that everybody is vulnerable in some way."Oxfam predicted that world hunger would worsen as climate change inevitably hurt crop production and disrupted incomes.

They suggested the number of people at risk of hunger might climb by 10% to 20% by 2050, with daily per-capita calorie availability falling across the world."The changing climate is already jeopardising gains in the fight against hunger, and it looks set to worsen," said Oxfam.

"A hot world is a hungry world. If the remainder of the 21st century unfolds like its first decade, we will soon experience climate extremes well outside the boundaries of human experience." More news Topics�Environmental sustainability�Climate change(Environment)�Climate change(Science)�Sea level�Oceans� More��Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)�Drought�Flooding�Natural disasters and extreme weather Scientists in Stockholm are due to present the most exhaustive and authoritative state of climate science to date.

Follow our live news and reaction as the UN's climate science panel publishes the first part of its fifth assessment report Published: 27 Sep 2013Climate chang�� REGIONS� TOPICS� COLLECTIONS� BOOKS� WORKING PAPERS� JOURNALS� OTHER RESEARCH� MULTILINGUAL CONTENT� DATA� BY REGIONS & ECONOMIES� BY INDICATORS� ABOUT DATA� RECOMMENDED READINGS� USING eLIBRARY� TOOLS FOR USERS� FAQs� MOBILE FAQs� HELP Sea level rise (SLR) due to climate change is a serious global threat.

The scientific evidence is now overwhelming. Continued growth of greenhouse gas emissions and associated global warming could well promote SLR of 1m-3m in this century, and unexpectedly rapid breakup of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets might produce a 5m SLR. In this paper, the authors have assessed the consequences of continued SLR for 84 developing countries.

Geographic Information System (GIS) software has been used to overlay the best available, spatially-disaggregated global data on critical impact elements (land, population, agriculture, urban extent, wetlands, and GDP) with the inundation zones projected for 1-5m SLR. The results reveal that hundreds of millions of people in the developing world are likely to be displaced by SLR within this century, and accompanying economic and ecological damage will be severe for many.

At the country level, results are extremely skewed, with severe impacts limited to a relatively small number of countries. For these countries (such as Vietnam, R. of Egypt, and The Bahamas), however, the consequences of SLR are potentially catastrophic.

For many others, including some of the largest (such as China), the absolute magnitudes of potential impacts are very large. At the other extreme, many developing countries experience limited impacts. Among regions, East Asia and the Middle East and North Africa exhibit the greatest relative impacts. To date, there is little evidence that the international community has seriously considered the implications of SLR for population location and infrastructure planning in developing countries.

The authors hope that the information provided in this paper will encourage immediate planning for adaptation. Related Regions : Africa, Latin America and Caribbean, East Asia and Pacific, Middle East and North AfricaRelated Countries : Belize, Nigeria, Guinea, Czech Republic, VietnamRelated Topics : Water Resources, EnvironmentKeywords: AGRICULTURE, ANALYSIS, BIODIVERSITY, CLIMATE, CLIMATE CHANGE, DATA SOURCES, FLOODS, GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION, GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM, INDICATORS, ISLANDS, LAND, LAND USE, OBSERVATIONS, SEA LEVEL RISE, STORMS, STUDIES, WAVES, WETLANDS, WETLANDS LOSS BrowseCollectionsDataAbout eLibraryUsing eLibrarySubscriber Services� 2016 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank.

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